Survivor: Palau commentary

Gregg. Gregg. Gregg. So that was your "big plan" -- to get voted out? You were a good player, just not smart enough. I can't say you didn't deserved the boot, but you should have seen that one coming. Well, well, well, this season might actually live up to expectations after all, even with a total loser tribe and a few black sheep who almost ruined the game by refusing to play and quitting, because in the end it did come down to a few good players and a few others who late as it were, started to you know, play the game.

I don't see Jenn as very vulnerable with Gregg gone. We know Tom and Ian are pretty tight, so unless the three women ally to boot one of them (and we all know how successful it would be, given that particular history), they're rock solid in the final four. Jenn is not so much of a threat because of the other two people we come down to, Katie & Caryn. Katie, given her history of wavering alliances, and the blowout with Ian we see from the previews next week, should be on the hot seat, and unless she somehow manuevers herself into an all-women alliance or weasel her way back into the fold of Tom & Ian, she'll likely be gone. Caryn, on the other hand, should also be worried because she is a threat now to Ian, who made promises to Katie but not to her, and it would be in his interest to boot Caryn first before voting for Katie in order to win Katie's jury vote. While the other two women fight it out, Jenn's best move would be to sit on the side lines and vote with the men, unless an all-women alliance holds, which incidentally is in all the women's best interests because none of them can win against Tom or Ian in the final two.

Last week it was still not entirely clear, but now Ian has truly shown himself to be the best player, outshining even Tom. From the realisation that Katie is not firmly on his side and hatching of the plan to boot Gregg, to its perfect execution in getting Caryn to act like she's the next one to go (who would've thought Caryn'd be such a good actress?), to keeping mum when Gregg and Jenn returns, to winning immunity, to telling Katie about their plan at the last minute so she has no way of outplaying him without drawing attention to herself, shows how much of a tactician and master of the game Ian has become. Even tribal council was a well-planned affair leaving all the jurors jaw-droppingly surprised. Rarely has such a plan been executed with such brilliance and perfection, even the booting of Rupert on Pearl Islands and Leann on Vanuatu had potential glitches. Furthermore, Ian is still sitting in the game's best position, even in a final two spot with Tom. Not to mention that he is playing with some of the best strategic players in the history of the game.

Steph was totally gorgeous, especially that hair of hers. I never imagined how much more attractive she would become with a shower, a feast, and a good night's sleep. Incidentally, she's never won any of those rewards, or any immunity either, and yet she survived eleven consecutive tribal councils? Unbelievable. She must have set some sort of record. She continues to get my love even on the jury, and I wished there was some sort of twist that can bring her back in the game. You know, I think Gregg really made a mistake in not being flexible enough to account for Steph in his plan. If Steph has stayed instead of Caryn, she and Katie would easily come over to Gregg's side, given her distrust and view of Tom as a threat. (OK, I know this shouldn't be about Steph anymore, but couldn't you just spare some space for her, for me and posterity?)

Next week: Ian and Katie re-enact Kelly and Sue's argument way back in the first season. And Caryn gets approached by Jenn and Katie for another round of Bitchfest: Palau. Who will be voted out? You know, this season might just end up with a deserving winner.

Steph. Steph. Steph. It pains me to see you get sent to the jury box, even though I sort of accepted that it would be since the first 10 minutes of the show. There comes a point when I can quite easily predict who's going home each episode because of the way it was edited. The chosen one would get slightly more airtime than usual compared to the others, and we are shown more personal moments and how the game has affected him or her. This time it was Steph. Sigh. Well at least there are only 3 episodes left in this season and I'll get to see her for at least a few seconds every episode. Too bad the women's alliance didn't work out.

I don't know what Caryn is thinking. She really deserves to go next just based on the horrible strategic sense she has shown. In this case, none actually. She can join Coby as this season's worst strategic players, even Coby did show some promise in the early stages until he self-destructed. I can't believe she bought into Tom's story and promise of sixth place in a six-person alliance when they're down to seven. Maybe she thought she could weasel her way into final two with Tom, but ultimately she just reverted to being a unbelievably gullible pawn in Tom's game.

If Tom wants to win this, he needs to stop announcing the fact that he is strong. His "Don't vote me off because I am strong" speech came across as so desperate and ineffectual to the point that it set off several of his tribe members thinking about voting him out, if they haven't already did. (That speech seemed ironic when he refused to acquiesce to Steph's plea at last tribal council to not do exactly the same thing.) All he has to do now is to keep his mouth shut, be strong and win all remaining immunities and all the plans the others have of voting him out will go right out the window. Just by default, he'll be facing the jury.

I certainly didn't expect Katie to have the smarts or the mettle to be playing this game with that much scheming. It's like finding out that talkative popular girl in school who always hung around with the biggest jocks and bullies can actually win a boxing challenge without help from or care for her usual cronies. Oh well, I'm glad that another girl other than Steph is playing the game. Janu and Caryn and maybe Jenn all deserve to be pawned off at this point.

You know, I heard him mention countless times, but I've yet to understand what Gregg's plan is. Is it to get down to five with Jenn, Tom, Ian and Katie? If so he can't possibly be thinking that the alliance of Tom, Ian and Katie will bring him over Jenn into the final four. If he had wanted to engineer a coup against Tom, he couldn't do it at five or even at six with Caryn because that'll just force a tie, or even better Caryn will decide to vote him off instead to prevent a tie-breaker and at least buy herself a final four situation. He needed to do it at seven with Steph. And yet he claims Steph is disrupting the plan? I don't know, I guess I 'll have to continue watching, but I still think that the "Big Plan" will not amount to much for him.

Will Jenn really switch against Gregg if the women alliance had worked? I don't know. She doesn't seem capable of doing that, even if she did (or tried to) convince Steph she would. But now it does her no good of switching to any alternative plan. If she just follows the plan, final four is almost guaranteed for her, and from there who knows?

Ian is replacing Tom as the season's best player. Others seem to have forgotten Ian is almost as much of a physical threat as Tom is, even though he has proven himself so, winning the very first immunity on the first day, the most recent immunity, and being a key player in many of Koror's tribal challenges. Furthermore, he is popular and well-liked by most of the tribe members, as evidenced by the many scenes of tribal exchanges. He has a strong bond with Katie, who might just give him the pivotal vote bringing him into and winning the final tribal council. And he would not be viewed as a threat as long as Tom is around, so it would actually be in his best interests to keep Tom around for as long as possible until the last moment when Tom would have no way to turn against him. In fact I'm not sure that Ian doesn't have at least a 50-50 chance against Tom facing the jury, especially a jury with Coby "I hate Tom's arrogant and dictatorial ass" in it.

You know, I'm surprised that I actually sort of care who wins, despite the fact that Steph is gone? Gosh, I would never have thought.

Next week: Caryn pinpoints Katie as the traitor. Will she successfully save herself? Will Tom finally be betrayed? At least we'll get to see Steph again!